the Orange Tsunami

Nairobi appears to be quiet today. Media reports are saying that the planned ODM rally doesn't seem to be happening, as, so far, people are not heading into the city in large numbers. Police are still blocking off Uhuru Park though.

BBC and others speculate that the appeal for mass protests is no longer there. That's one possibility. The other is that there's confusion about when the rally will happen. ODM officials announced 3 different dates yesterday, first 'next week', then 'saturday', then 'tomorrow, friday.' It would be very Kenyan for a mass political movement to flounder due to miscommunication and confusion.

Kibaki's apparent rejection of international involvement also appears to have changed. Reports say that he's meeting with Desmond Tutu right now. This after yesterday's speech in which he - if you listen between the words - blamed the ODM for the violence and promised to meet them only after 'the political temperature' dropped and violence stopped.

It may be that the riots, looting, killing, and forced movement have made ODM's task much more difficult. So much attention has been focused on stopping the fighting before it gets out of hand, and rightly so, that it appears to have distracted popular attention away from the fact that virtually everyone has stated that the announced results of the presidential race are fraudulent. Unlike other popular movements in which vote-rigging incumbents are ousted by mass protests, the Kenyan Orange revolution may be stopped before it starts. Odinga's Orange Tsunami washed over Kenya on election day, but he needs a new metaphor if peaceful protests are going to change the officially announced presidential result.

One problem is that here in Kenya, I suspect it's difficult to get a long-term public protest rolling, at least if the model is something like Ukraine's Orange Revolution. The first issue is to get people to believe that they won't be mowed down by excited and excitable police. For many Kenyans, even if they do strongly believe in the issue, the risk of life and/or limb may deter them from showing up. So far, the government (let's call them that, just for argument's sake) has been able to use this to good effect. Police and GSU lines have been a strong deterrent. People are pushing them, or at least they did yesterday, but only to the point of warning shots being fired, tear gas and water cannons being unleashed. Restraint on the part of the police yesterday was commendable. If the police can control the crowds that way, the rallies will never happen.

The kind of mass demonstration that ODM wants to use first require a core group to get established in Uhuru Park. Once that has been acheived, more and more Kenyans will join. To do that, however, they're going to need police cooperation to allow the rally to take place. Not easy at the best of times, and especially now with rioting and violence such an extremely easy excuse to deny permission.


So, what if the outcry over electoral fraud dies down? Will Kenyans just accept it and forget what happened between December 25th and 31st that spawned this weeks chaos? For the sake of justice, I hope not. And I can't imagine Raila and the rest of the Pentagon backing down from their claims, especially with so much obvious international and Kenyan support for at least a retallying of the vote, or even a re-run of the presidential race.