Protests and riots

January 17, Montreal

News reports come in from the second day of ODM's planned "people peace power" rallies. Yesterday's news was that the rallies were mainly dispersed by tear gas, with live rounds fired in various locations and 4 people killed. BBC has reported that two children were killed in Kisumu, one 13, the other 5 years old. Most likely they were caught in the cross-fire when police and GSU troops opened fire on protesters, which doesn't justify their deaths. BBC has also reported that the police spokesman has claimed officers using live rounds in Kisumu had disobeyed orders. What will become of them, if that is indeed the case?

In Nairobi, GSU troops have blocked reporters from entering Kibera to document the 'operation' launched against ODM supporters. One story from the East African Standard reports that police used tear gas to disperse media personnel who were attempting to follow running battles in the slum.

Yesterday the police filled an Eldoret hospital with tear gas. No reports on why or what exactly prompted that bizarre contravention of normal operating procedure.

In another of Nairobi's slums, Mathare, reports are coming out that fighting is not just between protesters and police, but also between local residents of different ethnic groups. Kikuyu youths, apparently, have attacked Luo there.

In Eldoret, violence and destruction targetting Kikuyu residents continues. BBC showed a picture of at least one house, reportedly belonging to a Kikuyu family, having buckets of water thrown towards its smouldering posts and beams.

The continued, low-intensity (is that the right term?) ethnic conflict in different parts of the country is not encouraging. As much as there is a political crisis in the country which needs to be resolved for long-term democratic stability, there are serious fault lines in "Kenyan" society that must be addressed in the long-term to prevent the cyclical eruptions of ethnic conflict that have plagued Kenya for decades. This can only be done, however, once the current fighting has stopped and some sort of peace restored, preventing an escalation of revenge attacks. Peace first, then truth and reconciliation, so that justice can be done. And it will take far more than simply going after leaders (at whatever level, whether political, criminal, popular, or other) who have inspired, instigated, or organized this kind of conflict. The underlying issues, including various types of inequality, injustice, and non-violent tribalism, need to be sorted out in one way or another.

On the political front, the driver of an ODM MP, from Kasarani constituency in Nairobi, has reportedly been murdered by police, and ODM leaders are reporting that they are being targetted for assasination. I'd like to believe that to be a remote possibility, but given Kenya's history and the current state of chaos, it could conceivably happen. If it does, it will undoubtedly be chalked up to fanatics or gangsters, whose links to politicians can only be inferred, rather than traced. If it does happen, the situation will get much, much worse in the country.

ODM is persisting in its claims that the election was stolen, that the government is illegitimate, and has now added that international sanctions must be applied to both stop the repression of citizens who want to protest in favour of democracy and against the election results, and to bring about a political solution to a political crisis.

Internationally, interested parties continue to voice their displeasure with both the election results and the aftermath. From initial warnings that 'business as usual' could not be the case if some concrete actions are not taken to solve the problems, to more recent intimations that aid money will be withheld unless a) violence stops and b) the elections results are revisited suggest that international 'partners' are losing patience and faith that the 'government' will easily restore order, allowing all involved to ignore the claims that electoral fraud was used to retain Kibaki's position as president.

A lot of people have some explaining to do. Why is it so important that Kibaki retain the presidency? Is it really worth the mounting death toll, the crushing blow to recent economic growth, and the goodwill of the international community?

If Raila and ODM play this well, they'll be able to shift attention back to the political problem, and if they're really interested in the welfare of the Kenyan state (and its citizens) they'll push that even further to fundamental changes which may prevent similar catastrophes from happening in the future. Basically, whether they acheive the main goal of unseating Kibaki and putting Raila in State House is somehow irrelevant, especially if they do so and then commit the same failures they have accused Kibaki of presiding over.

I continue to reserve judgement about what ODM may or may not do if they do in fact have the election results nullified.