Stalemate.

January 7, Karen.

The chaos and 'unrest' that have transported Kenya into a surreal alternate world over the past week seem to be cooling down. Killings and shootings continue, seemingly mostly by police trying to disperse 'looters' or 'rioters', etc. The roads are opening up, although assembly points for caravans to get police escorts have been established in several towns. Well over 100,000 people are still camping out in places like Jamhuri Grounds, Nairobi, and police posts around the country, not only for fear of attack but also for the fact that they have nothing to go back to where they had their homes. Whole neighbourhoods have been razed, ash and smoking timber left in their place.

Domestic relief efforts continue. From collection of food and clothing at various supermarkets in Nairobi and other major towns to the production of songs of peace, complete with music videos, by teams of local artists. Yesterday was a mass prayer day, with churches around the country dedicating their services to restoring peace through prayer.

On the political end, things haven't changed much. Various envoys from various foreign powers (including Desmond Tutu and the US's 'top envoy' - Jenayi Frazer? - ) have met with both Raila Odinga and Mwai Kibaki.

So far, 'negotiations' or discussions, or whatever they are, continue in the style of a dysfunctional family's dinner table. Word is leaked from Kibaki's group that he would consider a coalition government. Raila rejects the idea in a press conference, saying that he is the rightfully elected President and should be the one to extend offers of coalition in his government.

Government spokesman (and TV screenwriter/producer/director), Alfred Mutua responds that "The President will announce a government of national unity when he is ready, and whether Mr Odinga and his party will be involved is another question." That is, 'well, we didn't mean a coalition with you!'

Kenyans, or at least many of the ones I hang out with, have returned to talking politics rather than being shocked at the rioting and destruction that occured. People have plenty of ideas for how to proceed. Some regret that ODM didn't prepare for this eventuality, saying that they should have made sure that at least some of the military and an appropriately senior judge were on their side, to swear in Raila and then pressure Kibaki into stepping aside. To me, this seems like Russian roullette. It might have worked, or it might have led to civil war.

Others are already performing the calculations of parliamentary seats. ODM and allies have gotten 102, and will then nominate 6 more, giving them 108. PNU, earlier announced to have 37, apparently now has 46. I'm not sure where those 9 others came from. If PNU, all their pre-election allies, ODM-K (Kalonzo's party), and the 11 MPs from 'unaligned parties' all join together, they'll just have enough to outvote ODM (111, I think is the total, with three vacan seats because the counting was called off when irregularities got too bad). This seems unlikely, although not impossible.

Others have suggested that Kibaki will perform the usual feats of Kenyan politics, that is, poaching MPs from other parties, including ODM. Many of the candidates have spent all they had to get their seats, and may be more than willing to consider a ministerial appointment, with its extra salary, for jumping off the ODM ship and joining Kibaki. Parties in Kenya, afterall, do tend to be little more than election vehicles for candidates who seem to choose their party by divining which one has the best chance of getting them the seat and the inflated salary that goes with it.

Kibaki's men (and women) continue to assert that he has been legally declared president, following the official announcement of results by the ECK and the inauguration ceremony presided over by the Chief Justice. Funny, at the inauguration, that they didn't even both with the national anthem, nor did they apparently invite anyone but PNU winners and losers to attend. This has sparked some rumours that the inauguration was filmed in the morning, leading ECK Chairman Kivuitu no option but to press ahead with the announcement of the results. Like a Kenyan moon-landing conspiracy theory.

ODM, for its part, continues to call for public rallies. Now set for Tuesday, they want demonstations in all major towns and several sites throughout Nairobi. Perhaps this is an effort to draw security officers away from the main Nairobi target, Uhuru Park, in order to weaken the lines to a point where the marchers can safely get in. The police and military continue to disperse rallies with water cannons and tear gas. Mombasa has had two such rallies broken up over the weekend.

The police insist that political rallies are banned for security reasons. Police spokesperson, Eric Kiraithe has claimed that they have 'evidence' that undesirables are planning to use the ODM rallies as covers for looting missions and violence, which is enough reason for them to outlaw the rallies altogether in the interest of public safety. Of course, there's nothing political in the opposition's rallies being banned.

The Nairobi Star (junk food for your brain) had a blurb on Friday in which the MP-elect for Kieni constituency called for a protest against the EU observers. They're lying, he says, when they claim that the presidential tally in his constituency was changed from 50-somthing thousand to 70-something thousand for Kibaki. Not sure whether his rally went on or was broken up by the police.

It seems virtually consensus, with everyone but Kibaki and his closest supporters, that the election was flawed and something needs to be done about it. Whether that will happen in the near future or not is another question. As long as uncertainty prevails, there is high potential for more rioting, looting, and violence when steps start to be taken, unless both political sides somehow come together.