Naivasha, January 1, 2008
“What do you think?” Steve asked.
“I don't know.”
“But in your heart, how do you think it looks? Who do you think will come out?”
“It's too close to call. It's really to close to call”
It was Christmas Eve day, and we were driving into town from Ngong. We had picked up a mechanic and another friend and were on our way in to try to buy parts for one of the cars. A Raila Odinga billboard hovered above the left side of Langata Road.
The polls published in the newspapers were unclear. Some had Raila ahead, others Kibaki. Most had the gap between the two within the margin of error. ODM had been making allegations of bias for weeks, ever since Raila's initially very large lead began to fade and the gap began to close. Steadman, the head of his eponymous research company, was said to be a close friend of some of Kibaki's main men. They had stood as his surrogate father and best man in a traditional Kikuyu wedding years ago, and subsequently stood by him in court when his estranged wife sued him for property and control of the companies when the marriage fell apart. The ceremony was never completed, they all said. Steadman did not deny those claims, but denied that his research firm would be biased due to his friends. Kenyans, on the other hand, refused to believe that political connections could not influence his work.
*
Christmas Eve was the official last day of campaigns ahead of the December 27 General Election. Both ODM and PNU, the President's re-election vehicle – not to be called a party, because of it's vague composition of 'friendly parties' and willingness to have both an internal nomination procedure and have 'friendly parties' field their own candidates independently, while pledging support for Kibaki – held their final rallies on that day, in different parts of Nairobi, about 5 km apart. ODM to the south, in and around Nyayo National Stadium, PNU to the north, in Uhuru Park. As we entered the city on Langata road, I spotted black smoke rising just outside of Nyayo Stadium.
“Is that tear-gas?” Steve asked.
We agreed that it couldn't be, because of it's thick, dark colour. Tear-gas is almost white.
As we approached the last round-about before Nyayo, we saw the throngs of orange-shirted youths, carrying banners, flags, signs, and making a lot of noise. We handed out paper visors with Raila's face printed on them to a few young guys passing in between the cars. Steve had been made chief campaigner for the Kajiado North parliamentary aspirant.
Both sides of the dual-carriageway road were jammed. Police stood on the Nyayo side of the round-about, directing traffic away from the main road and into Nairobi West. Steve pulled the car up, nosing down Langata Road, and asked one of the police if the road was closed. It's not his problem if we decide to go through, he told us. We discussed the options. If we went through, the car would almost definitely be decorated with some new dents, and the springs would take a beating as people piled on to ride the car through the crowd.
*
Steve parked the car outside of one of the pub/bar/hotelis in Nairobi West, one renowned for good meat. He went with the mechanic to find a cab to get to Industrial Area to buy the parts. We were already late, so I doubted he'd make it in time before the shop closed. I hopped into a very Orange pub, with loud music, and plenty of drunken supporters, along with another Maasai from Narok who was hoping to get a matatu from town to home.
“Ogendo” one of the drunk supporters called to me. “How do you see our siasa?”
I answered in Swahili. It's different from ours. Ours is boring. Here there's a lot of passion and excitement. I prefer Kenyan politics at the moment.
I entered the pub, sat down at an empty table in view of one of the TVs, and the Maasai went to order the meat.
KTN was broadcasting live from both rallies. They would show a few minutes of crowd scenes from one before cutting to the other. By the time Steve returned, almost an hour later, unsuccessful in his mission, it looked like ODM's crowd was far larger than PNU's. In Kenyan politics, that's a good indicator of who will win.
As a general rule, political rallies are deceiving. This was made very obvious at a thank-you lunch a few weeks earlier for one of the defeated ODM candidature hopefuls for Kajiado North. One of his opponents also came to the lunch, and during his speech proclaimed that he was surprised to see so many of his hard-core supporters here, being thanked by one of his opponents for their hard work on his campaign. When rallies are held in the same place, on different days, by different parties, you can be sure that a good proportion of the attendees are there for whatever handouts and euphoria they might be granted. When rallies are scheduled at the same time, they can only be in one place.
*
By the end of the day, it was again unclear who had more support. Uhuru Park is a much bigger venue, since it's open and accessible, whereas Nyayo Stadium can only accommodate so many people. Given the crowds outside, however, ODM was not short of rowdy youths.
The news showed pictures of a group of young men carrying a Marabou stork into the stadium. They live in the trees that line Uhuru Highway, which is intersected by Langata Road at Nyayo Stadium. After the rally, the stork was seen dead, hanging in a barbed-wire fence, tail up. The black smoke seen earlier in the day was the result of a fire fueled by a massive Mwai Kibaki billboard. We had speculated at the end of October, during the Nairobi Marathon, how long it would take before ODM supporters pulled it down. Approximately 54 days, from that sighting of the sign.
After the rallies, each addressed by their respective leaders, candidates, and presidents, some supporters of each side managed to find each other between the two venues and engage in sporting hand-battles. Some injuries, but no deaths were reported. Each side was sure of its victory, each side claimed the other 'sensed defeat.'
*
ODM and Raila had been whistle-blowing election rigging plots for about two full months, with almost daily warnings that the government would not allow a free election because it had seen the popular support for the opposition movement. The cries had become so frequent and common, that election rigging had become this year's wolf. ODM claimed to know not only that it would be done, but how. Administration Police officers from around the country would be called from their posts and re-assigned throughout the country to oversee poll rigging. Stuffed ballot boxes would be ferried out to various constituencies to inflate the PNU vote, and especially those in the Presidential race.
On Christmas day, text messages went out with the news that government and private vehicles, from trucks to buses, were spotted leaving the AP training centre in Embakasi, loaded with vote riggers and fake ballot boxes. That night, KTN broadcast undercover footage of the vehicles leaving the compound, bound for destinations unknown. The next day, the East African Standard would produce front-page photographs of the same vehicles, with a story explaining the allegations. One of their alleged sources, was a disgruntled AP, who had been dropped from the plot at the last minute when his political allegiances were called into question.
The government regularly uses police and military personnel to provide security at polling stations. Nothing is sinister in that, given the likelihood that unruly crowds, which begin to form as early as 4 am on voting day, will get out of hand, protesting either delays or opponent's supporters presence at the station. The allegation was that these AP's would not be providing security, but would be used as poll agents for PNU, supervising inside the polling stations to ensure that people were helped to vote for the party of their choice if unable to read the ballot papers, and that the counting was done in a fair, accurate, and transparent manner. By using civil servants and security forces in this capacity, the government was breaking the law, at least according to ODM, but even worse, they were expected to ensure that the president's tally was high and that his opponents did not garner too many votes.
Christmas night, these allegations led to violence and death in Kisumu and other places in western Kenya, where the opposition was seen to have strong support. Several of the suspect vehicles showed up in town, with passengers in plain clothes claiming to be PNU poll agents. They were immediately confronted by residents of the area when news of their arrival spread like wildfire. Two were beaten to death. Two more were seriously injured and hospitalized. The other one hundred took refuge in a nearby police station. News came out late in the night and the next morning, adding fuel to the fire of rigging rumours.
*
Did ODM really have this information, or were they launching ideas into the public to prepare for the eventuality that their presidential candidate came up short? It's not inconceivable that the party would use propaganda to set the stage for its inevitable protest in the case of Kibaki's re-election. They repeated over and over the statement that they would accept defeat in a free and fair election, but only if it was free and fair. Kenyans, they said, had become more democratically enlightened than ever before and would not accept a return to dictatorship represented by a stolen election.
The presence of an American consultant in the Orange camp -- Dick Morris -- provoked suspicions that they would try to topple the government – if they did not form it through the election – by street protests and any other means necessary. The American in question is said to have been one of the brains behind Ukraine's Orange Revolution, in which opposition leaders led peaceful demonstrations until the sitting president conceded that he and his party had stolen the election and he stepped down in their favour. This was the precedent set a few years back, before Kenya's Orange Democratic Movement came into existence. It's an ironic coincidence that the opposition was given the orange as their symbol while the government was represented by the banana in the 2005 referendum on the draft new constitution. It's no surprise that the opposition's victory in the referendum led to the coalescence of a coalition of M.P.s, and eventually a new political party.
ODM claims to be against the continued corruption perpetrated by members of Kibaki's inner circle. ODM claims to be in favour of democracy, devolution of power, and more equitable distribution of the benefits of nationhood throughout Kenya, rather than the concentration of power and wealth in a few hands. Of course, many of ODM's leaders are among the most powerful and wealth of Kenyans, some the children of members of the original Kenyan political elite. ODM claims to be above electoral fraud not least because they claim to have broad support of a majority of Kenyans.
*
Election day was eerily peaceful in Enoosupukia. The line started to form before sunrise at Mpeuti Primary School, a newly registered polling station. The day went on. By late afternoon, everyone had their chance to vote. And we sat on the soft grass of the school compound, waiting for the polling station to officially close and the counting to begin. The whole day was quiet. Earlier in the day, one of the two soldiers posted to the station repeatedly had to come out of the station to tell people to stand in a straight line and not gather in groups that even remotely resembled campaign huddles. In the late afternoon, as the sun was beginning to sink down towards the higher ridge of Ilmelili, small groups, mainly of men, sat or lay on the ground, discussing quietly amongst themselves. Who would win the council seat? Who had the most votes where?
These kinds of calculations had been going on for months as the council campaigns developed and heated up. Initially, people were talking about development and education, proclaiming that they wanted a literate person to be their representative, and better yet one who lived closer to their end of the ward. As the campaign developed, allegiances shifted based on who was perceived to be leading and rumours about what certain people might do if they got into power. In the end, the incumbent councilor was selected, an illiterate man from the far end, the lowland end, the pastoralist end, of the ward. Most of the people in the hills had supported another illiterate candidate, on the grounds that they disapproved of the councilor who had come to their neighbourhood only to look for votes after sitting through successive forceful evictions without doing anything obvious to protect his constituents. They also chose not to support the educated man who lived close by, on the grounds that he wouldn't get enough votes from the lowlanders. The other educated candidate, they said, was a risk to their safety, and had secret plans to settle their ancestral lands, from which they had been evicted nearly three years ago, with his political allies from other parts of Narok District.
By 5 pm, on time, the polling station closed and counting began. There had been one tense moment, when a young lady from the community and her brother-in-law had been temporarily arrested for her trying to vote twice. In the end, it turned out to be a mistake, instigated when the brother-in-law noticed her name had not yet been crossed off the register. They sat on the cold concrete floor of the school until the counting was finished and the presiding officer and soldiers could deal with them, with the soldiers eventually extracting some extra pay for their release.
We watched the counting from the open windows of the school room. Young men crowded around, peering in, hushed and listening keenly as the ballots were sorted into piles, keeping track of the scores unofficially, and then even more keenly as the ballots were counted. First the councilors. Then the members of parliament. Finally the presidential candidates. The councilor and MP from KANU were the leaders at Mpeuti, followed by ODM candidates. In the presidential vote, Kibaki took 185, while Raila scored 112. Mpeuti is a small station. 287 registered voters. Somehow, those people managed to cast 299 votes. There's a rumour that the leading council candidate at this station, who finished second overall, losing by less than 20 votes, will challenge the results in court. The official, posted announcement of results asks readers to 'see note' to explain the overabundance of votes. The note was not visible on the posted announcement.
The counting was finished by 9 pm. All the officials and agents looked and sounded exhausted by the process. Most had not slept the night before, preparing the station and getting ready for the days task. Most of us watching the counting were also tired. I climbed back up to the house, where the only TV in the neighbourhood would be tuned to KBC, broadcasting the results.
*
KBC, the Kenya Broadcasting Corporation, is largely regarded as a mouthpiece of the government of the day, rather than a free media outlet. It seems that all of the media houses, whether radio, TV, or print, are judged by their perceived political bias. Citizen, for example, is seen to be biased in favour of the current government, since its owner is Kikuyu, as are Kibaki and many of his key policy-makers and advisors. The many vernacular radio stations owned by the same company, are seen to be sympathetic to whichever political leader comes from the community which speaks their language, and people have told me that this is a business decision by the company, since it would do no good to alienate your listeners by broadcasting opinions they are presumed not to hold due to their places of birth or mother-tongues (and Kikuyu, by the way, are shrewd business people who love money and power above everything else, in the minds of many non-Kikuyu Kenyans). KTN, on the other hand, is suspected to be sympathetic to the opposition, and it and its print cousin, the Standard have in the past been shut down and raided by police.
KBC, unfortunately, is about all that people have access to in Enoosupukia, and so was my only source of news for the next three days. The station appeared at first to be broadcasting preliminary results from reports at the counting halls. This year's election, in contrast to others, had been planned so all votes would be officially counted in the polling stations, with totals and sealed ballot boxes transfered to tallying centres for tabulation and public announcement. From there, the results were to be taken to the Electoral Commission of Kenya in Nairobi for announcement of Parliamentary and Presidential results to the nation. By the time I went to sleep, well after midnight, no news had become available. The new process was designed to both speed up counting and announcement, and to prevent rigging by replacing ballot boxes with stuffed ones in the transport between the polling stations and official counting centres, where votes were counted in previous elections. It appeared to be failing on at least one count.
On Friday morning, I woke up late, and switched on the TV to see if results had come in overnight, still expecting that we would know the winners by the end of the day. KBC, it seemed, had stopped announcing preliminary results and was waiting for officially announced results from the ECK. The ECK, on its part, was struggling to announce results. By mid-afternoon, only a handful of constituencies had been announced and complaints were beginning to be raised at the delays.
By the end of the day, I had heard of some kind of trouble in Kajiado North, my second home in Kenya. Reports on KBC TV and radio were vague. A small riot had erupted at the tallying centre. Later I got news from Steve, who was chief campaigner for the ODM parliamentary candidate there that stuffed ballot boxes had been discovered, the candidates had nearly come to blows in the tallying centre, and when the incumbent MP exited the building, the assembled Maasai 'over-reacted' pelting him with stones. This led to police response, with tear-gas and firing in the air. I wished I was there, because waiting in the hills, listening to the government media stations, and being left in the dark was not an ideal situation. Counting in Kajiado North was temporarily suspended.
*
Saturday morning, I awoke after sitting up until after midnight again, hoping that some progress had been made. Today, I was sure, we'd hear the final results. The ECK, too, tried to assure people that the delays would be eased and the flow of reports would speed up. In fact, they did begin to speed up, and a number of results were announced through the day. One after one, sitting Ministers and veteran M.P.s were felled by young upstarts, many of them complete newcomers to the elections game. In all, over 50 were sent packing, 20 of them ministers, including the Vice President himself, who was defeated spectacularly in his constituency by an ODM candidate. The Orange Tsunami, as Raila and his colleagues liked to cal it, had swept the shores of Lake Victoria, with very few PNU and friendly candidates winning seats. The presidential race tallies were similarly one-sided, in some cases with Raila receiving 100 times more votes than Kibaki. In PNU strongholds, the reverse was true.
By mid-afternoon, problems became apparent, even on KBC. Result announcements were being disrupted by ODM agents in the media briefing room, disputing the announced numbers and claiming that the numbers announced at constituency counting centres were radically different from those announced in Nairobi, on national TV. The results, they said, were skewed to favour Kibaki and ensure that he met all three criteria to retain his seat.
The requirements for a presidential election in Kenya are difficult. A candidate must not only win his or her own parliamentary seat – rarely even considered a difficulty for a serious contender – and gain the highest total number of votes nationwide, but the candidate must also secure at least 25% of the vote in at least five of Kenya's eight provinces. In the past, this formula has been cited as a possible cause of ethnic violence around campaign time, as the past president, Danial Moi, and his supporters tried to ensure that Kikuyu voters were forced out of certain provinces so their candidates, opposition leaders who had pressured the KANU government into reinstating multi-party democracy, could not satisfy the third requirement. In the 1992 and 1997 elections, this violence was probably unnecessary to secure the elections, as they had been thoroughly rigged by the President's supporters. In this election, the 25% in five provinces requirement may in fact prove to be a difficulty for the incumbent, as ODM appeared to be very broadly supported, while the PNU team mainly looked to have support from Central Province, the Kikuyu and Meru homelands.
--
Text message from Steve: “Intelligence info of the tallying of the presidential vote. Raila 4.2m Kibaki 3.7m. Put the champagne on the ice.”
--
As the interruptions continued, ECK Chairman Samuel Kivuitu struggled to make his voice heard. After one pause to hear objections, he decided to proceed, speaking over the shouted complaints of two ODM M.P.s. He urged them to listen, saying that they would be very pleased with the particular constituency he was about to announce since “it is very nice for you people.” Eventually, he called off the reading of more results, announcing that as of 2:30 pm, Saturday, December 29, Raila Odinga had a slight lead over Mwai Kibaki, with some 30 constituencies left to be reported, mainly in PNU strongholds. Some of the remaining constituencies had already been identified as problem areas, with stuff boxes and cooked results being alleged.
The reading was adjourned, with two commissioners announcing that the ECK would review the announced results and the complaints and a decision on how to proceed would be made by Sunday morning. Through more objections and short speeches by representatives of each of the nine presidential candidates, along with opportunistic prayers one of the candidates himself, two agents of each candidate were chosen to join the ECK commissioners in a verification process. ODM demanded that its requirements be met, and constituencies where the results announced on the ground differed from those reported to ECK be properly investigated before being made official through public announcement. The country slept in uncertainty, if it slept at all.
*
Rumours began to circulate in Enoosupukia, that Kikuyu residents living just downhill from Mpeuti, at a small centre called Ilkirragarien, had begun to pack their belongings. Their great enemy, William Ntimama had won the parliamentary seat for Narok North on an ODM ticket, and he was known to be against their continued residence in his Maasai District. Raila appeared to be poised to take the presidential seat. The ECK, it was said here, was going slow because it was afraid to announce that Kibaki had lost. Kikuyu in Narok Town, it was said, had already begun to leave, fearing the prospect of devolution which ODM was promising. Devolution, in this campaign, had been slandered as a new word for the ethnic regionalism promoted in the 1990s as a response to multi-partyism, as a way to remove the threat of Kikuyu dominance of national politics. While ODM had made some efforts to rebuke this interpretation of its agenda, mainly spread by PNU supporters, people on the ground had a hard time distinguishing between ugatuzi (devolution), which they had never heard of, and majimbo (ethnic federalism), which was familiar from recent political history. Even with ODM leaders rejecting the idea of ethnic regionalism, there was no guarantee that their followers would agree that all citizens do have the constitutional right to reside anywhere within the country. Fear was a major part of this campaign.
--
We heard no news through KBC of actual violence until Sunday morning, when a few pictures were shown of burned vehicles.
A phone call came at 9:30. Don't come to Nairobi, things are getting bad. And ECK is set to make the final announcement at 10:00 am.
10:00 came around, and ECK was nowhere to be seen. KBC cut to a shot of the inside of the media announcement hall, but the commissioners and the chairmen had not arrived. We waited.
KBC's commentators, particularly Prof Munene, from United States International University, did a lot of talking without saying much. They reviewed announced constituencies, remarking on the change of faces in parliament, speculating as to what went through voter's minds when they made such decisions. In some cases it was the Orange Tsunami, in some cases the lack of results from a Parliament that rarely had enough members in their seats to fill quorum, and which had not only increased their salaries to 800,000 shillings per month, but also voted themselves a 'gratuity' package, whereby each regular MP would get 1.5 million at the end of his or her term, while ministers would get more. That's plenty of money to use in your re-election campaign. One of the major curses the Ninth Parliament suffered from was the Constituency Development Fund, money set aside to initiate and complete development projects in each constituency. Mismanagement, patronage and cronyism, and general disregard for transparency in its administration, with many M.P.s treating it like their personal goodie bag, meant that many of those leaders would not be returning to their cushy jobs.
Prof Munene made himself an obvious PNU speaker on Saturday, taking the ECK's calculated running total of presidential votes and adding the other announced constituencies to tabulate Kibaki as leading by some 400,000 votes. ODM's objections, he said, were a sign that they knew what the final result would be and were trying to prevent their loss. KBC, in general, made no mention of counting problems or potential electoral fraud.
--
Text message from Steve: “We've lost the parliament seat.”
--
Still waiting, we sat outside and switched to KBC radio. In Kiswahili, they were providing slightly more information that KBC TV. Still, the made a point of repeating the statement that “we are not hiding anything. We are reporting all the information we have. Even though we were limited in the past to say what the government wanted, those days are over and we will not hide anything. Our bosses have told us to remain professional in our work, and to present the information we have.” I would have liked KBC TV to make this same statement and back it up with a more comprehensive broadcast.
Late afternoon and we still had not heard anything from Kivuitu and the ECK. Raila appeared at the media headquarters, apparently to meet with the commission. His arrival created a stir, but he was quickly whisked into an elevator and taken up to the commission's office.
Then, around 4:30 pm, the commissioners entered the media hall and took their places. We rushed to see the TV to get a live picture of what would be said.
Kivuitu began to speak. Announcing results from remaining constituencies. Molo. Turkana Central. Mandera. Kajiado North.
As he read the Kajiado North tallies, William Ruto, from ODM, stood up to raise an objection. Kivuitu tried to contiue. Ruto persisted. Kivutu kept speaking. Ruto produced a presiding officer from Molo, who disagreed with the numbers announced. Kivuitu told him to take the chairman's place and announce the results for himself, and continued to try to announce the results. ODM persisted with their objections, Ruto approaching the table and addressing Kivuitu directly. And then the soldiers came in.
The chairman and his commissioners, along with a few selected observers were escorted out of the room, walking between a double line of General Service Unit commandos, and led by an Officer of the Police. They disappeared. No one knew where they were going or what would happen next.
*
To be legally considered official, Kenyan election results must be publicly announced by the ECK, and the presidential results and announcement of the winner must be made by the chairman himself. This was not going to happen with ODM politicians and agents present.
The announcement hall was cleared by soldiers. Media, politicians, observers, all were hustled out of the room and out of the building. The show was over.
*
Some minutes later, Kivuitu was shown sitting on a leather sofa, with one commissioner by his side. He proceded to read a prepared statement, rejecting ODM's complaints as out of the jurisdiction of the ECK, and went on to announce that Mway Kibaki had won the election with 4.5 million, and Raila in second place with 4.3 million. The final tally had the president elected with a margin of just about 240,000 votes out of the nearly 10 million cast.
The announcement was introduced by a shaken KBC presenter, looking uncomfortable in her seat, who announced the final results as they flashed on the screen. She repeated them after the broadcast of Kivuitu's statement. The second run of Kivuitu was long enough that a British reporter was heard to ask “Mr Kivuitu, do you feel that by announcing these results you have passed the buck to the courts to deal with the objections and problems being reported.” And then it was cut back to KBC's election update them music and title screen.
*
We sat quietly, waiting for more. Some of my friends, sitting in the house with me, expressed their relief that Kibaki had won. They didn't trust Raila, especially if he would give Ntimama a powerful cabinet post, as was expected with the old man always appearing beside the ODM leader.
Others began to express their anger at ODM trying to disrupt the process. They were afraid to lose, my friends claimed, unwilling to consider that perhaps ODM had reason to complain. “Dirty Luos” one of the younger men stated, “they horrible people. No respect.” “They're not even circumcised” another one added.
I sat in disbelief. These were the kinds of statements usually directed at Kikuyus, except for the one about circumcision, which is a common complaint of Kikuyus when presented with the idea that a Luo might become president. How could they be led by a young boy in a man-sized body?
*
I sat, continuing to wait, hoping that KBC would broadcast something of value, something to explain what happened and what the result of this development was.
Just as I was about to leave the house in frustration, the KBC presenter returned to the screen. Kibaki was to be sworn-in immediately, not 40 minutes after the official announcement by Kivuitu.
Cut to the garden at State House, Nairobi and a scene of party tents shading an assembled crowd of Kibaki's political allies. The Chief Justice, the Commissioner of Police, Kibaki himself, seated on the other side of a dais and table.
Kivuitu stands at the microphone, speaking in his usual, mildly arrogant but tough manner. “The law says that I must announce the official results of the presidential election and present the winner with a certificate so he can be sworn in, because otherwise a fake president might come.” He reads the certificate, and then walks over to present it to Kibaki who barely smiles, himself looking rather uncomfortable.
The Chief Justice approaches the microphone in his red robe and white wig. He calls on Kibaki to be sworn-in as the elected President of the Republic of Kenya. Kibaki takes a Bible in one hand, reading the oath, in Kiswahili, before sitting at the desk and signing the document. He takes a second oath, signing it again, before returning to his seat under the tent. He then approaches the dais, reading a prepared speech in his usual slow, halting English. He thanks Kenyans for their participation in a free and fair election and calls upon them to join him in his second and final term to continue with the good work his government has done in the past five years. He pledges to install a 'clean-hands' cabinet, free of corrupt M.P.s, and invites members of friendly parties to join him, even if they're not officially part of PNU.
Cut back to KBC studios, where the announcement is repeated that Kibaki has officially been declared the victor. Then a loop of Just for Laughs gags, for over an hour before the 7 pm news is broadcast at 7:40, repeating the same news, with little additional information.
I begin to pack my bags to leave Enoosupukia for Nairobi, for a last week of tying up loose ends before a trip to Canada, for a break and tying up Canadian loose ends.
*
Arriving in Naivasha Monday morning, everything seems quiet, but normal. I buy a copy of the Standard, but can't get the nation. I go to the grocery store to buy phone credit and some snacks. Then I return around the lake to Fisherman's Camp, where I'll spend New Year's Eve (and Day), before going back to Nairobi.
When I arrive at Fisherman's Camp, I'm told that the media has been blacked out, and radio and TV stations are not allowed to air live broadcasts of any sort and are restricted from broadcasting anything that might be 'inflammatory.' The newspaper mentions rioting, fires, looting, and deaths. Sky News and BBC have very brief pieces on 'the situation' and escalating violence.
I call some friends in Nairobi to find out more. Lawrence tells me that the police commissioner has resigned in protest, or at least that's the rumour. I try to call Steve. No answer. I try him later and get him. He was detained on Sunday with some ODM operatives and his phone taken away all day. He was released later. I don't yet know any more than that, but he's safe at home now. Nairobi is a mess. Another friend tells me that people are allowed to move around, so there's not a total curfew, but any congregations of groups are outlawed and police have been authorized to use lethal force. Shoot on sight.
In the late afternoon, KTN broadcasts some news. Raila and Ruto have not been arrested, contrary to rumours, and they air a recorded statement from a press conference reiterating their rejection of the officially announced results, claiming massive fraud and rigging, and calling on Kibaki to step down. PNU urges Kenyans to remain calm and to leave behind violence, and calls of Raila to reject violence publicly. They reiterate the statement that the election was free and fair.
Scenes of burning houses, beaten young people, and looted shops are shown from around the country. Chaos is taking over.
News continues to come in through my internet connection. Dozens killed in rioting and police actions. Mathare, Kibera, and other slums are on fire. Eldoret, Kisumu, and Mombasa are being subjected to running battles between police and protesters.
ODM hopes to stage a peaceful rally at Uhuru Park, to have an alternative inauguration ceremony for their president elect. The police block off the site. If ODM supporters go, they'll almost certainly be mowed down. Raila makes a statement that democracy is expensive and they are prepared to pay the ultimate sacrifice for the good of the country and for democracy. He scoffs at the prospect of being arrested, saying it will be the 20th time he's been detained by a Kenyan government, having been tortured in the past for suspected subversive activities and involvement in the attempted coup of 1982, then for his role in pushing for an end of single-party rule.
The rally gets called off, and ODM announces they'll hold a peaceful rally on Thursday, with supporters wearing black armbands and carrying twigs, a sign of mourning for the death of their democracy. Thursday's planned rally gives ODM the legally required three days notice, and their leaders argue that the police and the government will be breaking the law if they refuse the party's right to hold a public meeting.
--
At Fisherman's Camp I sit with a diverse, but almost exclusively white, group of diner's and partiers. There are almost no African Kenyans here tonight. An overland truck is here, which compensates somewhat for the cancellations by people who don't feel they can safely travel from Nairobi. Others feel trapped here, unsure they can safely travel to Nairobi to move on to other destinations.
We drink, we wonder why this madness is going on. We feel sad at the prospect of what might happen. An American student of political science wonders out loud whether this will become ethnic cleansing like Rwanda, her research suggests it could. I disagree. We drink. We eat leg of lamb. We dance. I feel guilty, but there's nothing I can do from here. I feel guilty that there's nothing I can do from here.
--
I sleep at 4 am and wake before 10. I immediately open my laptop, checking the internet for any news. More than 130 killed. Rumours that Desmond Tutu will be called in to help negotiate. The government has formed three committees to deal with the 'situation.' The EU comes out with a statement that the voting and initial counting was legitimate, transparent, and fair, but that the final tallying and announcment of 'official' results lacked credibility. Other diplomatic missions follow suit.
A church is set on fire in Eldoret, adults and children are burned alive where they were seeking refuge with 400 or so other internally displaced persons, chased from their homes by fear of continued violence. Rumours of deaths from around the country pour in. In Narok, it's said that Luo and Kikuyu residents are fighting. Houses are burned to the ground. In Ntulele, Maasai and Kikuyu have fought leaving a few dead.
A call comes from a friend in Narok, that all along the main road, the towns, where Kikuyu business people have their shops, have become sites of violence, with fighting between the Kikuyu and the Maasai. The fear of majimbo, the prospect of a stolen election, the sense that a Kikuyu elite is trying to reinstate a dictatorship, or at best, a thinly veiled farce of Kikuyu political hegemony, pushes tensions to open fighting.
*
Nairobi, the government claims, is under control. The streets are empty. Shops are closed. Friends are asking me to find phone credit for them here. In Nairobi, 100 shilling scratch cards are selling for 130. Scarcity is leading to price gouging. Bread, milk, and other supplies are running out. Petrol stations are empty, with panic buying leading to empty shelves and tanks.
I find eighteen 50 shilling Safaricom cards here and send Steve the number of all of them, so he can load up his phone and stay in touch. A few hours later, it's me who has no credit and I ask him to arrange a few hundred of Celtel. He calls his brother-in-law in Rongai, because Kiserian is empty. I get 200, which Philip paid 260 for. I owe him drinks.
*
Official results are being challenged. ODM claims rigging in 48 constituencies. The US Ambassador claims 20 % of constituencies have 'irregularities', which translates to just over 40. Enough to steal a close election? Probably. Molo: Kibaki had 50,000 and some votes when announced at the constituency counting centre, and over 75,000 when announced in Nairobi. In Juja, he went from 48,000 to 100,000. Others are similarly inflated, with a range between 10,000 and 50,000. Some constituencies have suspiciously high voter turnout. Even in a very well attended election, 115% is not commendable, but rather impossible. Even 90% is remarkable, and thus a bit unlikely. The range is particularly interesting. Some constituencies report 60% or less, while others report over 90%.
A campaigner for Solomon Kinyanjui, the Democratic Party candidate for Kajiado North, where Steve managed the ODM campaign and all were focused on removing the incumbent, George Saitoti, tells me his version of the story. When counting was halted on the 28th, after the discovery of stuffed boxes and allegations that Saitoti's brother was tabulating the results on a computer to rig the tally, Sakuda, the ODM candidate led with nearly 30,000. Saitoti followed with around 20,000, and Kinyanjui was a distant third with more than 10,000. On the 29th, the final tally showed Saitoti with more than 40,000, Sakuda with 21,000, and Kinyanjui with 226 votes. Raila, it is claimed, has cited Kajiado North as an international case. International observers, it is claimed, have cited Kajiado North as in need of divine intervention.
*
ODM announced today that it will go ahead with the planned rally on Thursday in Uhuru Park. The Orange Revolution will continue and Kenyans will not be robbed of their right to democracy. Kibaki, claims Raila, has staged a civilian coup, pushing the ECK to announce obviously cooked results and legitimize his fraudulent election. He refuses to engage in direct dialogue with Kibaki unless he first steps down as president, saying that to do so would legitimize his actions and entrench him as the legally elected head of state. He will also not go to the courts, fearing that the government will control the proceedings, and, in any matter, will take years to resolve. Election challenges from 2002 are still in the courts. One was ruled in favour of the complainant in late 2007, just months before the next election.
Ruto comments that the government setting up commissions and committees to investigate is ridiculous. “How can you steal from someone and then set up a commission to find out why he is angry?”
Leaders plead for peace. Women politicians join together to call for peace in the country. As with the clashes of the 1990s, the statement that we have all lived peacefully together for years, as neighbours, as citizens, and friends, is made in rejection of the ethnic dimension that some of the violence is taking on. Safina party, one of the PNU friendly parties calls for the votes to be retallied and an investigation carried out, to prove who is the legitimate winner.
Five commissioners of the ECK speak out, saying that their duty does not allow them to remain silent when obviously flawed results have been proclaimed as accurate and true. They say that there is too much evidence that something went wrong, but that it is beyond the jurisdiction of the ECK to deal with it.
Kivuitu is interviewed. He feels he was pressured to announce the results he had been given, rather than taking more time to investigate complaints. PNU, ODM-K, and some civil society organs pushed him to announce the results, saying that it was necessary to maintain order. He was left little choice, but considered resigning in protest of the pressure that he felt was unwarranted and prevented him from doing his duty as he should. He decided against that though, saying that Kenyans would see him as a coward who was afraid to make the difficult decision that needed to be made in a close race.
The US ambassador commends the Kenyan people on the participation and enthusiasm for the election, but decries the violence that has erupted. The official position of the United States is that the voting and counting was free, fair, and transparent, but that there were irregularities in the final tallying and announcement. That said, the rule of law must be followed, and ECK announced results are legally considered final and true. He stops short of supporting Kibaki, but nor does he support Raila. The US, he says, is here to help, and dialogue between the leaders to find a peaceful, legal way forward is needed.
*
If Kibaki has used the ECK to stage a civilian coup, would ODM's use of the people, official observers, and foreign missions be any less of a civilian coup? It has certainly not been bloodless. Some 250 people have lost their lives, scores more have been injured. Over 75,000 have been internally displaced, businesses burned, livelihoods lost. One man was shown on KTN weeping. His car, his means of making a living as a taxi driver, has been burned to the ground. He says he has returned to zero. He has nothing now.
Is this about democracy and freedom, or is it about control of state resources. It is commonly heard in Kenya that in 44 years since independence, Kikuyu presidents, and thus the Kikuyu community has been in control for 20 years, while Moi, a Kalenjin ruled for 24 before stepping down. Why should the Luo, Luhya, or Kamba not have their turn at the presidency? Are they not also large tribes, whose constituents deserve the neo-patronage kickbacks of control of political power and resources?
ODM claims to be a movement of the people. The claim to want to bring development to all communities, defeating corruption and ensuring that tribalism takes the form of affirmative action for marginalized groups rather than resource capture and concentration of power.
I can empathize with that. I agree with that. I would like to believe that ODM will do that. But I'm not yet entirely convinced that they will fulfill even those promises, let alone the huge range of almost fantastic plans they have for every region of the country.
Kibaki has presided over a remarkable recovery for Kenya. The economy has grown. Businesses have done well. Several parastatals, turned into corruption vehicles and run into the ground under the Moi regime have been revived, increasing exports and bringing benefits to small-scale producers. But corruption has not ended, it has gotten worse according to some reports. Kibaki has been seen to appoint members of his own and allied communities to key positions, leaving out many others. Reversing 24 years of damage, and probably much more, considering that Kenyatta, and before him the British, were not models of good governance and democratic development, is not possible over night, nor is it possible over only five years.
Whether Kibaki's PNU or Raila's ODM would continue trends of economic growth, finally stamp out corruption, and put Kenya in the club of economically and politically prosperous nations is an irrelevant question at this point. More pressing is to resolve the current political crisis, which has two camps of leaders each claiming to represent the will of the people, as represented in election results. People are dying. Homes are burning. Shortages of food, fuel, and water will lead to much more suffering in the very near future. This political crisis has Kenya's five years of recovery teetering on the edge of a cliff. The entire region depends on Kenya to either provide or facilitate the provision of supplies and support. Kenya can not be allowed to collapse, even temporarily.
If Kibaki and his team have stolen the election as ODM claims and many observers suspect, they will spoil all the gains they have made, forming an illegitimate ruling clique with the support of only a narrow section of hardcore supporters, probably expecting corruption and connection to power to return wealth and benefits to their hands and homes. And if they have stolen the election, and are proven to have done so, will they say that they have done it for the good of the people? For the benefit of the nation? For economic growth and sustainability?
If ODM forces a popular revolution by propagandizing false election results skewed in their favour, they will have done no better. If their Orange Tsunami is not the result of a popular earthquake, but rather the result of a carefully planned strategy to incite the people rather than represent them, the country will be no better off. We don't yet know who is giving the correct figures. We don't yet know whether accurate counts with the fraudulent inflation removed from all constituencies would give ODM the presidency to go along with their nearly 50 % of parliamentary seats – which, in any case, will make it very difficult for Kibaki and friendly parties to do much of anything.
The truth is needed to resolve this crisis, but the truth will not be known in hours or days. And the people of Kenya don't have weeks to wait, as long as uncertainty feeds instability and chaos.
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