Stalemate

Montreal, February 7

The political stalemate continues in Kenya. After easy agreement on the fact that there's a humanitarian crisis in the country, the Kofi Annan mediation extravaganza hit a major roadblock (no burning tires or machetes here) by trying to address the elections. ODM says it was stolen, wants a change, and is suggesting a transitional government of some sort. PNU says there's no problem and ODM should have gone to court (but has now missed the opportunity because they didn't file a petition before the deadline to do so), and is refusing any suggestion of a re-run or a transition. They did, however, agree that there are fundamental problems with the Electoral Commission of Kenya which need to be addressed. Great work fellas.

What seems absurd, at the moment, is that people seem to believe that these same politicians can somehow control the 'rowdy youths' who periodically erect blockades or chase people from other tribes in (and out of) various rural parts of the country. It seems to me, watching from a distance as I am, that the politicians have little to no control over what goes on on the ground.

True, it would make a difference if they continued to promote peace and speak out against violence. That might convince some of the fence-sitters among the youth not to join in on fighting when it erupts. But the hardcore, some of whom may well be directed as parts of gangs which are controlled at the local level or more or less independently from the politicians who are almost always linked to them by rumour and innuendo, will not easily be swayed by words.

The underlying problems, tensions over resources that should be more linked to class and less linked to ethnicity, need to be addressed, and assuming that the political elite is in control of 'supporters' who are then sent out to attack opponents or 'enemies' will not help the situation. That's the legacy of the ethnic clashes of the 1990s, which were passed off as politically instigated and orchestrated while it should have been clear to almost everyone that it was not simply a matter of politicians running militias (although that was there, too), but far more complex.

Until Kenya sorts out the deeper issues, the potential for repeated explosions along ethnic lines, such as those that have happened over the past several weeks, will continue to exist.