Communication breakdown

Montreal, February 26


The BBC is reporting that the mediation talks in Kenya have been suspended. This is not altogether unexpected, given that the discussions which seemed to be proceeding so well over the past couple of weeks hit some serious snags over the past seven to ten days. The main sticking point, it appears, is the powers to be associated with a new position of Prime Minister, and how that person is to be selected.

The ODM wants an executive prime minister, whose job will be created through a constitutional amendment, and who will be selected through General Election (that is, the leader of the party with the most seats in Parliament will automatically become the PM). They want this person to have a fair amount of power in directing government business in Parliament, just like many other PMs around the world, which would remove some of the executive powers from the imperial Presidency that Kenya currently has in place.

The PNU disagrees with this, and while they apparently agreed to the creating of a PM post last week, they have argued that the PM should be a simple cabinet member, to be appointed (and fired) by the President, more or less at will. This, they say, should be done through a simple act in Parliament.

Kofi Annan, trying to reassure everyone involved (including those of us keeping score at home), has said that the talks have not 'broken down' but that he has temporarily suspended discussions so he can meet directly with Raila and Kibaki to try to move things along more quickly than their negotiating teams will allow.

ODM, meanwhile, has called for mass, peaceful, public demonstrations to be held on Thursday. They made the call late last week when it looked like talks were going to get seriously bogged down on the power-sharing issue, and formally notified the police on Monday evening. Now, from what I can tell, there should be no reason for the police to disallow the protests, since the blanket ban on political meetings appears to have been withdrawn, and the ODM have followed the necessary steps by providing notice three days in advance. Of course, a protest in Kenya, even if it's intended to be peaceful, is a risky proposition for public safety and maintaining order. Whether thugs from either side will try to use the mob effect to stir up serious trouble, or the police decide to bust things up for no apparent reason, things could easily get out of hand. Let's hope they don't. It's time to start a new precedent in public demonstrations in Kenya anyways.

This whole situation is a bit absurd.

First of all, ODM and Raila are basically negotiating to get themselves a stake in governing the country with a regime that effectively stole the election. At first, it seemed to be about trying to come up with a resolution to the crisis that would likely see a short-term transitional phase to oversee constitutional reform and a new election. Now the transitional aspect of it seems to be more in doubt.

Second, Raila and ODM appear to be basically willing to settle for a Prime Minister's post, if it has enough executive power and is entrenched by a constitutional amendment, despite earlier having rejected outright the possibility of even entertaining an offer. That's fine, I suppose, but they have to know that unless things are done quickly and with enough legal weight to make them stick, there's a pretty good chance that Kibaki and his team will do what they did in 2003: break the agreement at the earliest opportunity and continue to make use of their power as they have been.

If these negotiations actually lead to fundamental, constitutional change in Kenya, Raila and ODM accepting the creation of an executive Prime Minister would be a potentially positive step. That would be better than having the presidential results overturned (or annuled) and then taking up office to perpetuate the same intentional neglect to effect reforms that Kenya saw after the NARC coalition came to power in 2003. But, if the PMship is being used as a tool to bring Raila into the fold of PNU, so to speak, and if he goes along with it, he will have proven once and for all that he's no better than the rest of the so-called leaders who have brought this crisis upon their people.

Meanwhile, if talks actually do break down, rather than being slowed down as Annan says, there's a very real threat of renewed violence. The uneasy calm that has prevailed since the beginning of February has given the ethnically oriented gangs of youth time to recharge their batteries. In a worst case scenario, they will also have taken the time to organize and prepare.

The first step to lasting peace and reform in Kenya is to prevent the thugs and gangs from getting an opportunity to cause further damage. That will require the 'leaders' to strengthen their resolve to solve the political crisis so that they can go on to the next steps: constitutional reform and a truth and reconciliation effort that goes as far back in time as necessary to deal with the root causes of these conflicts. The question is, can Kibaki and his team put their death-grip on power aside for the good of the nation, and can Raila and his team show a level of integrity that forces PNU to do so?